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Market Summary: The Fourth of July 2021

Wed, 07/07/2021 - 05:01
Petroleum prices continued to increase as Crude rose for a sixth consecutive week, the longest such streak since December. A dispute within OPEC has extended their scheduled meeting into this week, tempering gains on Friday. All other key market drivers were positive as US Crude stocks continue to tighten, pushing WTI prices into further backwardation which has reached its highest level in three years. The outright price of Gasoline closed at its highest level since October 28, 2014. The average price at the pump for a gallon of Gasoline in the US is now $3.11 per gallon, a seven year high.

The Excel Waterfall Chart

Wed, 07/07/2021 - 04:54
Microsoft® Excel 2016 and higher offers the Waterfall Chart. The Waterfall Chart is also known as a bridge chart or a cascade chart. Typically, this kind of chart is used to see how positive or negative values in a data series contribute to the total. Here, the Waterfall chart is a data visualization technique to compare percentage net change for the current trading session of the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average®. The sample spreadsheet available at the bottom uses two forms for the Waterfall Chart. The first form is simply detailing the percent net change for the sesssion

Q2 2021 is in the Books - Commodities Continue to Post Gains

Mon, 07/05/2021 - 01:34
The raw material markets asset class moved higher in the second quarter of 2021 after posting gains in Q1. The commodity asset class consisting of 29 of the primary commodities that trade on US and UK exchanges moved 10.76% higher in Q2 than the level at the end of March and was 20.32% above the level for the year that ended on December 31, 2020. In 2020, the asset class moved 9.89% higher. In 2019 it gained 10.98%, but in 2018 the asset class lost 6.82% of its value. The overall winner of the 29 for the first quarter was the MGE wheat market that posted a gain of 42.24% in Q2 as dry

The Single Value Propagator (SVP) Function

Tue, 06/29/2021 - 05:36
CQG comes with 74 functions such as Absolute Value (Abs), Accumulation (Accum), and Bars Since (BarsSince) to name a few. Functions are found in the Formula Toolbox for creating custom studies. Here is a link to the CQG Help file index for all of the available CQG Functions:!Documents/formulacomponents.htm. In this post, one function, the Single Value Propagator function is detailed. SValPropagator(@,0) From CQG’s Help file: “The Single Value Propagator enables the user to plot or use in a formula a single value, for example, last bid or last offer. Using the

Market Summary: June 27, 2021

Tue, 06/29/2021 - 03:32
Crude prices rose for a fifth consecutive week as continuing optimism regarding the ongoing economic recovery propelled prices to their highest level since October of 2018. This fifth consecutive week of increases represents the longest such streak since December. Tightening global stocks in the US and elsewhere in the OECD persist as economies, specifically in Europe, gradually reopen. The apparent practical end to diplomatic discussions between the US and Iran provided further support. Total US commercial petroleum inventories fell by 5.8 MB on the week as WTI gained 3.3%, Brent 3.6%, ULSD

What's New in CQG IC 2021: Supplemental Commodity Index (CIT Report) Data Added

Sat, 06/26/2021 - 00:50
The Supplemental report is published for Futures-and-Options-Combined in selected agricultural markets and, in addition to showing all the information in the short format, shows positions of Index Traders. To find the CIT symbols simply select the “CFTC Commitment of Traders” under the Exchange column and search for CIT. This link takes you a Workspace post with a downloadable Excel file for the symbols.

CFTC COT Data Expanded: Supplemental Commodity Index (CIT Report) Added

Sat, 06/26/2021 - 00:30
The Supplemental report is published for Futures-and-Options-Combined in selected agricultural markets and, in addition to showing all the information in the short format, shows positions of Index Traders. To find the CIT symbols simply select the “CFTC Commitment of Traders” under the Exchange column and search for CIT. A downloadable Excel file listing the CIT symbols is available. Downloads

Notes From Underground: Plus ça Change, Plus C’est La Même Chose (An Ode to Jerome)

Wed, 06/23/2021 - 07:14
As promised, here is the podcast I recorded with Anthony Crudele. There is a great deal expressed in 52 minutes following the June 16 FOMC meeting. The fact that Chair Jerome Powell kept on keeping-on with full blown asset purchases leaves me in the camp of very little change regardless of the DOT PLOTS. As Powell said about the FED (and Wall Street economists), not a very good record of forecasting. Click here to listen to the podcast. Learn more about CQG's soultions for finiancial markets It is an important point to make as I did in the interview with Anthony: Powell

Notes From Underground: From Tweets to Tweaks

Wed, 06/23/2021 - 07:09
Happy father’s day to all who are one and have had one. Just nine months ago the markets were experiencing convulsions as the then-U.S. president would unleash tweet after tweet at all hours. We certainly don’t miss the key-word-driven algos creating volatility with the tip of their finger. The markets got a jolt last Wednesday when the Fed tweaked its administered rates — interest on excess reserves and the offering yield on its reverse repo facility — by 5 basis points in an effort to prevent short-term rates such as TREASURY BILLS from pushing into negative territory on a 

What's New in CQG Desktop Version 6.5

Wed, 06/23/2021 - 06:57
General Minor fixes     We hope that these updates help improve your trading workflow. We continually strive to improve your CQG Desktop experience. We invite you to vote for or enter features you want via our CQG Forums site. And see past release notes on our website. Happy Trading! The CQG Desktop Team Log on to CQG Desktop

Market Summary: June 20, 2021

Wed, 06/23/2021 - 06:53
Crude prices rose for a fourth consecutive week as optimism regarding an economic recovery propelled Crude prices to multiyear highs. The ambiguous intent of the current administration regarding renewable fuel policy has sent mixed signals to the market resulting in a sharp reduction in crack values as both refined product futures lost value on the week. Refinery utilization is now at 18-month highs and demand levels for Gasoline and Distillate in the United States are lagging behind output figures. The third tropical cyclone of hurricane season served to bolster crack values through part of

The Fisher Transform

Tue, 06/15/2021 - 05:14
John Ehlers’, President of MESA Software (, goal is to bring the science of engineering and Digital Signal Processing to the art of trading. One such endeavor is his publishing of the Fisher Transform as a technical study for traders and investors. Ehlers explains in his published research on his website: “It is commonly assumed that prices have a Gaussian, or Normal, Probability Density Function (PDF). A Gaussian PDF is the familiar bell-shaped curve where 68% of all samples fall within one standard deviation

Market Summary: June 13, 2021

Tue, 06/15/2021 - 01:32
Petroleum prices rose for a third consecutive week, reaching their highest levels since October 2018. A positive report from the EIA stating that global demand would reach pre COVID-19 levels by the end of the year touching 100.6 MBPD and continued strong compliance among OPEC+ members as adherence to the production levels in May was assessed at 115% propelled prices higher. On the week, WTI gained 2.2%, Brent 1.4% and ULSD 0.04%. RBOB fell by 1.2%. A possible reversal of policy by the current administration on easing biofuel mandates caused refined product prices to plummet on Friday as

Will Biodiesel Demand Lead to a Paradigm Shift in Soybean Oil?

Thu, 06/10/2021 - 05:22
Prices for the actively traded July 2021 CME Group soybean oil futures reached all-time new highs in recent trading sessions (see Figure 1), spurred by increasing demand from the biofuels industry, a big piece of President Biden’s call to cut carbon-emission levels in half by 2030. Further, according to the USDA’s May, 2021 monthly supply and demand report, the biofuels sector is expected to consume 12 billion pounds of soybean oil in the 2021-2022 marketing year (up from an estimated 9.5 billion in 2020-2021). ADM, Cargill and many others are increasing their soybean crushing production

The Excel Treemap Chart

Tue, 06/08/2021 - 02:56
Microsoft® Excel 2016 and higher offer a new chart type: The Treemap. A treemap chart provides a hierarchical view of your data. This view makes it easy to spot patterns, such as which markets are outperforming or underperforming in a group of markets. The tree branches are represented by rectangles and each sub-branch is shown as a smaller rectangle. The treemap chart displays categories by color and proximity and can easily display a group of data. The chart displays the values as rectangles which are raked from the highest value to the lowest value and the area of the rectangles

Notes From Underground: Schauble Pivots, Brainard Postulates

Tue, 06/08/2021 - 00:59
The unemployment data was not as robust as expected but not bad since hourly wages rose above consensus, the work week remained elevated and the jobless rate dropped to 5.8%. The headlines are always subject to severe review doing these tumultuous times. The question remains: Why did the BOND market experience a sizable rally even as the DATA was well within range of expectations. There is a great deal of pressure on the U.S. overnight market as vast amounts of liquidity searches for a home. Learn more about CQG's soultions for finiancial markets The FED had

Market Summary: June 6,2021

Tue, 06/08/2021 - 00:25
Petroleum prices reached two-year highs, gaining for the second consecutive week and fifth in the last six. Continuing expectations of demand recovery, a strong report from the EIA regarding demand increases for the balance of 2021 and evidence of a clear re-opening of the European economy were the primary market drivers. Prices increased despite a 4% drop in US refined product demand and the average retail price at the pump for a gallon of Gasoline in the US reaching more than $3.12. On the week, WTI gained 5%, Brent 4.6%, RBOB 3.3% and ULSD 3.6% as overall commercial petroleum inventories

Notes From Underground: An Open Letter To the G-7

Sat, 06/05/2021 - 01:57
Every G-7 or G-20 meeting homage is paid to the idea of free markets via the market driven value of each nation’s currency. This is hogwash of the highest order in the world of central bank asset purchase programs. The clarion call is that QE is a domestic-based program meant to meet the inflation target set by the nation’s policy makers and any impact on a nation’s currency is just unintended consequences of keeping a country out of a potential disinflationary cycle. Every central bank statement except the U.S. has a sentence or two about the relative value of a nation’s currency and if too

Crude Oil Looks Bullish

Fri, 06/04/2021 - 23:36
On April 20, 2020, nearby NYMEX futures did what few market participants believed possible. Not only did the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate drop below zero during the delivery period, but it also fell to a low of negative $40.32. Expiring WTI futures became a bearish hot potato as holders of the contracts had nowhere to store the landlocked petroleum. Brent futures did not suffer the same fate as they reflect the price of seaborne crude oil, but they did drop to the lowest price of this century at the $16 per barrel level. Since the April 2020 low, the prices have made higher

Measuring the Percentage Required Gain

Fri, 06/04/2021 - 00:14
This article builds upon the post titled “Evaluate ETF Constituents Performance Using Excel” that detailed gauging the current price of a stock relative to the high as an indication of relative weakness and a table was included that demonstrated that if a stock was down, say, 50% from its annual high then it required a 100% gain to return to the annual high. The formula was simple: (Last Price minus Annual High)/Annual High. However, if we simply calculate the difference between the annual high and the last price but divide by the last price, then we know what the required percentage gain: (